Two things have just happened that we could have seen a mile off. Events in the Middle East have followed the exact script for "what happens if you attack Iran", a scenario analysts have been predicting for decades. If you take on the ayatollahs and threaten their future, they will take the gloves off and attack just about everybody. Check. They will also make it effectively impossible to send shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by sinking tankers and forcing up the price of insurance to intolerable levels. Check. The price of oil will soar. Gulf allies will warn of an apocalyptic collapse in energy supplies. Economists will predict the sky falling on our heads and a global economic calamity. Check, check, check. And the pain for an American president facing midterm elections, if he allows them to happen, will just become too great. Check. Experts have sat in TV studios predicting just that for years with maps and warnings about shutting off the world's jugular. The second predictable outcome has become a constant of our time. Trump Always Chickens Out. Robert Armstrong, the man who coined the term the TACO president, wrote in the Financial Times today: "It is, of course, utterly unclear whether the president's comments have anything to do with a change in balance of the war on the ground. "What they did communicate clearly, to the delight of markets, was that Trump is looking for an exit." Which is all the Iranian leadership needs to hear. Trump wants out. Whether it's this week or next or a bit longer, Iran's government just needs to hang in there. America and Israel wanted regime change. If it is not changed, they will have failed and Iran's leadership will, rightly or wrongly, declare victory. They may have lost every warplane and naval ship in their inventory. But they will remain in power, despite the yearning for change among so many of their people who had been promised help was 'on its way' by the US president.Read more:'The fighting feels like we're going to finish it - once and for all'Energy prices ease amid hopes Trump will soon call halt to war As for the Iranian nuclear programme, Trump will declare it obliterated. Again. But as long as Iran has the scientists to rebuild it and the leadership committed to doing so, it can still rise from the ashes like a Persian phoenix. What do future adversaries learn from all this? In Beijing, they have been closely watching as they plan to seize Taiwan at some point during Xi Jinping's presidency. They have a better gauge now of Donald Trump's tolerance for economic pain, a crucial factor as they game the invasion of their neighbour. A president they always feared as unpredictable and mercurial has arguably become a little less so after what he called his recent 'short-term excursion' in the Middle East.

The incident happened in the Beverly Hills area of LA on Sunday afternoon. Police confirmed to NBC News in Los Angeles that the star was home with her partner A$AP Rocky and their three young children. It is believed seven to nine rounds from an AR-15-style rifle were fired from a car - with at least four striking the house. What appear to be bullet holes can be seen in photos of the front gate but no injuries were reported. Police identified the woman as Ivanna Ortiz and said she remained in custody on $10m bail, according to NBC News. Rihanna and A$AP Rocky share a daughter and two sons.

The Conservatives had pushed for the move via an amendment to the government's flagship education legislation currently going through parliament: the Children's Wellbeing and Schools Bill. It had been backed by the House of Lords, but was defeated in the Commons on Monday night by 307 votes to 173. Calls for a ban have gained traction after Australia became the first country in the world to enforce one back in December. Since then, other nations - including in Europe - have been flirting with the idea. Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of "dither and delay" by announcing the UK government will consult on a possible ban, without committing to one. In a statement after the Commons vote, the Liberal Democrats said his stance was "not good enough" and "families need concrete assurances now". During the debate, shadow education secretary Laura Trott described the situation as an "emergency", as she cited polling which suggested 40% of children are shown explicit content on smartphones during the school day. "No more guidance, no more consultations. Legislate, do something about it," she said. Government leaves door open to action Some 107 Labour MPs abstained on the amendment to the education bill, including Sadik Al-Hassan, who told the Commons parents were "locked in a daily battle that they simply cannot win alone, fighting platforms that have been specifically designed to keep children hooked". But education minister Olivia Bailey cited concerns from children's charities that an outright ban on under-16s using social media could drive them towards "less regulated corners of the internet", or leave them "unprepared" for how to navigate the online world. She said the government's consultation would "seek views to help shape our next steps" - which could ultimately still include banning children from platforms like Instagram and TikTok. Read more on plans for schools:Labour's overhaul of SEND systemParents to lose automatic right to homeschooling One measure MPs did back on Monday was to grant additional powers to the technology secretary, Liz Kendall, to potentially introduce such a ban in future. She could also limit children's use of VPNs and restrict access to addictive features of apps like autoplay videos. 'Huge demand' for ban The Children's Wellbeing and Schools Bill will now return to the House of Lords to be further considered by peers. Lord Nash, the Conservative who proposed the amendment, has vowed to try to have it passed again. He said there's "huge demand across the country to raise the age limit and protect children". The bill will only become law if both Houses agree the final draft.

India smoked 255-5 after losing the toss in Ahmedabad, with Sanju Samson (89 off 46) passing fifty for the third straight match and opening partner Abhishek Sharma (52 off 21) slamming the fastest fifty of this year's tournament, from 18 deliveries. New Zealand were bundled out for 159 in 19 overs in reply - they were 72-5 after 8.1 - as pace spearhead Jasprit Bumrah (4-15) bagged each of his wickets with slower balls. New Zealand's hearts broken again as India add to dynastyScorecard: India vs New Zealand, T20 World Cup finalT20 World Cup final - as it happened in AhmedabadStream cricket and more without a contract through NOW Bumrah was on a hat-trick after cleaning up Jimmy Neesham (8) and Matt Henry (0) in the 16th over and ended with career-best T20I figures after dismissing New Zealand captain Mitchell Santner (43 off 35). Ishan Kishan - who had earlier tonked 54 from 25 balls - also produced two excellent catches, the second of which, a juggling effort at deep midwicket, removed Tim Seifert (52 off 26), and then a simple grab to get rid of Daryl Mitchell (17). Since going over a decade without picking up a global limited-overs title following Champions Trophy glory in England in 2013, India have won the last three, with their T20 triumphs in 2024 and now this year sandwiching the 2025 Champions Trophy. India beat New Zealand in that 50-over final a year ago and routed the same side on Sunday, becoming the first men's team to win the T20 World Cup at home and extending the Black Caps' wait for a maiden World Cup title after a fourth defeat in a final. India get off to a flier in final An early onslaught left the Kiwis shellshocked as Samson and Abhishek pounded India to 98-0 after seven overs - ample wides adding to the score and New Zealand's decision to select pacer Jacob Duffy (0-42) in place of off-spinner Cole McConchie spectacularly backfiring - while the hosts were then 203-1 after 15. Neesham's three-wicket burst in one over, in which Samson, Kishan and Suryakumar Yadav all fell - Suryakumar for a golden duck to a diving catch from Rachin Ravindra in the deep - dragged New Zealand back into the game, only for Shivam Dube (26no off 8) to collar Neesham's final over for 24 as India eclipsed the 253-7 they piled on against England in the semi-final run-fest in Mumbai. Dube dropped Finn Allen on nought in the first over of the chase, a blunder that could have cost India with the Kiwi opener blazing a T20 World Cup record 33-ball hundred in the nine-wicket demolition of South Africa in the last four. However, Allen (9) holed out off Axar (3-27) Patel before Bumrah removed Ravindra (1) with his first delivery - a superb slower ball that Kishan caught on the dive at deep square - and India went on claim a first victory over New Zealand in four attempts at T20 World Cups following losses in 2007, 2016 and 2021. India will aim to claim a first 50-over World Cup since the 2011 edition on home soil when the ODI showpiece is next held in Africa towards the end of 2027, having finished runners-up to Australia in 2023. India banish Ahmedabad blues Since that defeat in Ahmedabad three years ago, India have only suffered one loss across the next three ICC limited-overs events - earlier this month against South Africa in the Super 8s, also in Ahmedabad. There would be no issues at that venue against New Zealand, though, with batting brutality, fielding excellence - bar Dube's early dose of butterfingers and some sloppy errors from Hardik Pandya - and genius Bumrah playing their part. Bumrah's final wicket came when he castled Santner with a delicious off-cutter in the 18th over, before Abhishek picked up the title-winning wicket when Duffy (3) skied to Tilak Varma at long-on. New Zealand's runners-up finish follows the same result in the 2015 and 2019 50-over World Cups and 2021 T20 World Cup. They lost by the "barest of margins", to nick Ian Smith's iconic phrase, against England in an ODI World Cup epic seven years ago at Lord's, but this defeat at Narendra Modi Stadium was gargantuan. Watch cricket, including all England home internationals and The Hundred, plus more live on Sky Sports. Stream contract-free.

Financial markets have certainly taken that on board, with energy prices falling back from the war-level highs seen yesterday. But were the president's remarks deliberately aimed at taking heat out of those prices as countries across the world count the cost of the conflict? Iran war latest: UK prepares second ship for deployment It has already inflicted huge damage across the oil and natural gas-rich Middle East. The region is crucial to global price stability because of those resources, and UK businesses and consumers are already paying a price, with the likelihood of much worse to come even if the war were to end now. Here, Sky News explains what's happened and how you will be affected. Oil This chart tells you all you need to know. Any spike in global oil prices takes time to filter through fully. Black gold, as it is known, might be the enemy for the health of our planet, but it remains the crucial cog for the health of the global economy. Oil prices will only recover to pre-war levels when Middle East output and deliveries through the key Strait of Hormuz have resumed. The trouble here is that the biggest production sites for oil, and natural gas too, in the region have been shut down and it can take weeks to safely restart operations following any suspensions. It means that an end to the war is not necessarily a quick fix for oil prices, with deeper consequences ahead. More on those later. Fuel This is where we have first seen the effects of rising oil prices. The old saying goes that UK fuel prices are quick to rise and slow to fall. Rewind to Monday 2 March - the first chance financial markets had to react to news of air strikes on Tehran the previous Saturday - and the Brent crude oil price rose by about $5 to almost $78 a barrel by the close. Sky News was told that UK wholesale costs had risen by 2p a litre that Monday night. For diesel, it was 7p. According to the RAC, average pump costs since the war started were 5p a litre higher for petrol on Sunday at 137.5p, while diesel had shot up by 9p to 151p. The motoring group is warning that more increases are on the way as forecourts are restocked with more expensive fuel. The price picture is not helped by the fact that the pound has fallen in value versus the oil-priced dollar. It is impossible to say how far prices could go but the industry has been warned by the Competition and Markets Authority that it will act if it sees any evidence of profiteering - building on its fuel market findings that drivers have been paying over the odds for years. Heating oil This is the lifeblood of the UK's rural communities. Inevitably, the cost of heating oil for new deliveries has risen as oil costs have gone up. But according to data from provider BoilerJuice, the average cost of a 1,000-litre top-up stood at 133p per litre on Monday. That is more than 120% up on where the cost stood on 28 February - the day the first bombs dropped. As with fuel prices, users are being urged to shop around if they need a delivery. Household energy Here is where the news is a bit less painful. The energy price cap shields households on that default tariff from any immediate shocks in the global energy markets. The level for April through to the end of June has already been set - at £1,641 it is £117 down on an annual basis for the average user of gas and electricity paying by direct debit. However, current market prices are already influencing the calculations for the next cap level which will be set in May for July-October. Forecasts last week, before we saw the big spike in natural gas costs of up to 100%, indicated a 10% rise to £1,800 was possible. If you are on a fixed rate deal that is ending, as of Monday there were still offers in the market that were coming in at an average annual £1,640 - just beating the predicted price cap level due to begin at the end of the month. What it all means for inflation A quick recap. The UK's consumer prices index (CPI) measure had been widely expected to tumble from its current level of 3% to around 2% within the next few months - mostly because of easing energy costs. On Monday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged there would likely be upward pressure on the pace of price growth in the economy due to the war-led energy spike. Those elevated costs will not only feed into the cars we fill with fuel and our household energy bills but the prices factories face for raw materials, the charges factories impose for manufactured goods and the food we consume. A forecast by Oxford Economics last week saw the chance of a 0.6 percentage point hike for inflation by the year's end, assuming the war was short-lived. Crucially, and this is where it gets a bit more complicated, this prediction was purely based on so-called second-round effects - indirect consequences such as price-setting behaviour by businesses. Does this threaten an interest rate rise? The Bank of England uses tools, including interest rates, to help keep the pace of inflation in check. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rates have been elevated to help keep a lid on price growth. The prospect of a fresh energy-led lift to inflation means the Bank, which had been expected to cut the Bank rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week, is now widely predicted to hold off. LSEG data shows markets are currently almost pricing in a single increase by the end of the year instead. What effects has this had? We've seen fixed-rate mortgage deals pulled and repriced higher, reflecting that shift in sentiment over interest rate prospects. Data from Moneyfacts on Tuesday showed that the average five-year fixed rate had gone above 5% for the first time since November, and stood at its highest since 20 October at 5.03%. Lending costs for banks themselves have risen on the back of the market mayhem, alongside government borrowing costs. What about pensions and investments? Private pension values and vehicles such as stocks and shares isas have taken an inevitable hit from the turmoil. The FTSE 100 may be down 4.6% in the month to date but it remains 5% up on where it started the year. The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 is just clinging on to a gain for 2026 as a whole. Lale Akoner, eToro's global market analyst, told Sky News on the temptation to react: "For everyday investors, the key point is that geopolitical shocks often create short bursts of volatility rather than long-term damage to markets. "Trying to react quickly to headlines can often do more harm than good. Instead, investors should focus on staying diversified and keeping a long-term perspective. "Periods like this can actually highlight the value of having exposure across different sectors and regions, as energy stocks and defensive companies often perform better when oil prices rise and uncertainty increases." Read more from Sky News:MPs vote down social media ban for under-16sIran's women footballers granted Australian visas What have we learned? The war is having a real cost impact on the UK already. Fuel, heating oil and mortgage rates are all up. How long the war lasts will determine the path for prices ahead but even a truce will not result in any quick fix. Yes, things like new maritime insurance premiums may come down immediately, but it will inevitably take months for shipping, energy output and deliveries to return to pre-war levels, with price growth pressures potentially taking longer to disperse through supply chains.

During the ceremony, as Sinners stars Michael B Jordan and Delroy Lindo were presenting an award on stage, a racial slur was shouted out by Tourette's campaigner John Davidson, who was there to celebrate a film about his life. The BBC failed to cut the slur from its broadcast of the 22 February event, and viewers could see the offending moment for more than 12 hours before the programme was taken down from BBC iPlayer. In a letter to Dame Caroline Dinenage, chairwoman of the Culture, Media and Sport Committee, Mr Davie said the BBC made a "genuine mistake" in allowing the racial slur to be broadcast. He said: "I want to assure you that the BBC profoundly regrets the events around the broadcast of the BAFTAs on Sunday 22 February. "The BBC has apologised for the serious mistake that was made, in allowing a racial slur to be broadcast and then remain on iPlayer overnight and into Monday morning. "We understand the hurt and shock that the mistake caused. I'd like to make clear: although the racial slur was symptomatic of a disability and an involuntary tic, it should never have been broadcast. "It was a genuine mistake, and we take full responsibility for our error." It came as a message to BBC employees, seen by Sky News, reveals "frustration" within the corporation about the way the fall out from the controversy had been handled. The email from BBC chief content officer, Kate Philips sent on Friday afternoon says an investigation into the BAFTAs broadcast is ongoing and acknowledges the "upset and hurt" caused. Ms Philips also tells BBC staff: I've really appreciated your honesty as you've detailed the impact this has had. "I know there is frustration that my first email didn't give more detail, but I thought it was more important to reach out to you all at that point, than wait until I had a further update." Mr Davie who announced his resignation in November - said that there were two incidents where a racial slur was shouted during the ceremony. Regarding the incident where Jordan and Lindo were on stage, he said: "Although this is the subject of ongoing review, our initial evidence gathering has found that no one in the on-site broadcast truck heard this when they were watching the live feed. "Because no one in the broadcast truck was aware it was on the live feed, there was therefore no editorial decision made to leave the language in." The BAFTAs programme was edited down from the three-hour live show filmed two hours earlier that evening, and went out on BBC1 at 7pm. Read more from Sky News:Four arrested in UK on suspicion of spying for IranBAFTAs host addresses 'trauma triggering' broadcast Both Lindo and Jordan appeared to pause after the insult was heard, then continued their presentation. Davidson, who was attending the ceremony as the inspiration behind the film I Swear, which dramatises his life, said he is "deeply mortified" his involuntary tics caused him to blurt out the offensive language. The backlash to the incident overshadowed the film's success at the ceremony, with relative newcomer Robert Aramayo, who plays Davidson, taking home the best actor award over the likes of Oscar favourite Timothee Chalamet and Hollywood royalty Leonardo DiCaprio.

The group, which includes 22 retired judges and more than 300 senior barristers, alongside solicitors, academics, and other legal professionals, have urged Sir Keir Starmer to halt what they say is an "erosion of a deeply entrenched constitutional principle for negligible gain". Politics Hub: Follow the latest "Instead of draining valuable time and resources attempting to force through an unpopular, untested and poorly evidenced change to our jury system - and one that will only have effect, if any, in 2028/2029 - we urge the government to focus on the changes we know will make a difference now," the letter reads. MPs are due to vote for the first time today on the Courts and Tribunals Bill, which will remove the right to a jury trial for Crown Court cases concerning crimes that carry sentences of up to three years. Under the proposals, only the most serious cases, such as rape, murder and manslaughter, would be heard by a jury. The plans have proved controversial, with one critical Labour MP - and fellow lawyer - telling Sky News in January he was "ashamed" of Sir Keir over the plans. The government claims the proposals, alongside other investment they are making in the court system, will reduce the projected backlog by around 84,000 cases, to 49,000 cases by 2035. But research by the independent Institute for Government thinktank suggests restricting juries would save less than 2% of court time. The letter says the lawyers "fully support and share the government's aim of bringing down the backlog in the criminal courts," but the proposals "are based on little evidence". Female Labour MPs urge government to pass reforms A group of 40 female Labour MPs, including former women and equalities minister Anneliese Dodds, have written to Justice Secretary David Lammy urging him to "remain steadfast" with the reforms. They highlight "the agonising and rising waiting lists in our courts, which mean that a woman reporting domestic abuse or coercive control today may be told her trial won't come to court until 2030". "That is intolerable," they say. The victims' commissioner, Claire Waxman, has also written to MPs asking them to back the plans. Sir Keir met with a group of victims on Monday to discuss the reforms, and told them that the government had "got to make good on our commitments" to speed up justice for victims, especially women. Mr Lammy told Sky News on Friday he expects MPs to pass the bill. He said that MPs of all parties "recognise that victims of crime are waiting too long for justice". Sky News chief political correspondent Jon Craig said Mr Lammy emerged from a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday in a "bullish mood". The Conservatives say they will force a vote to "protect" the right to a jury trial, saying the reforms "risk weakening fundamental safeguards within our system".

The 43-year-old is understood to be one of two men arrested after reports of an assault in Huyton, Merseyside, on Sunday. At a High Court hearing on Tuesday over a libel claim involving Barton, Gervase de Wilde, representing ex-England footballer Eni Aluko, said his instructing solicitor had "received a call from a duty solicitor in a police station in Liverpool" shortly before the hearing. Mr de Wilde told the court that Barton, a former Manchester City and QPR midfielder, "was arrested yesterday and is currently being held in custody". A spokesman for Merseyside Police said: "We can confirm that two people have been arrested following reports of an assault in Huyton on Sunday March 8. "At around 9pm, emergency services were called to Fairway to reports of a man having been assaulted near to Huyton and Prescot Golf Club. "The victim was taken to hospital for assessment of injuries to his face and ribs. "A 50-year-old man and a 43-year-old man have both been arrested on suspicion of Section 18 wounding."