The extent of Labour's eventual losses will not be explained away by simply asserting all governments experience setbacks at the parliamentary mid-term.
Labour's argument that many of its supporters stayed at home sits uneasily with the fact that turnout has increased.
The big gainers are Reform, once again.
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Having devastated the Conservatives last year, Reform UK has marched into Labour's heartland areas and inflicted heavy losses.
In quick succession, Labour lost control of Hartlepool, Redditch, and Tamworth, but it was its defeat in Tameside that underlined the extent of the electoral upheaval taking place.
With only a third of seats up for reselection, Labour lost 16 of the 17 seats the party was defending in the borough. The council had been under Labour control for 47 years.
In Staffordshire, a county it gained last year, Reform UK added to its council tally by taking control of Newcastle-under-Lyme by gaining seats from both Labour and the Conservatives.
May elections - results as they happen
It is instructive to examine the size of majorities in seats the Labour Party is defending but losing.
Percentage majorities ranging between 5-10% are being lost to other parties at the rate of four in five. Majorities of 30% or higher are being lost at a rate of one in two.
The definition of a "safe" Labour seat requires considerable revision.
A key part of Sky News' local election results coverage is to provide an estimate of the National Equivalent Vote (NEV).
Using the actual votes cast in thousands of wards in multiple local authorities, the NEV addresses the question of how the country as a whole would have voted had the elections taken place throughout Britain.
With approximately 1,200 seats declaring overnight, we can provide a provisional figure for the 2026 NEV.
A word of caution: this figure is likely to change as more results are declared throughout Friday. For example, although Reform UK currently has a healthy lead on 31% to the Conservatives in second place on 19% and Labour on 15%, one point ahead of the Lib Dems, that could change as more results are declared from London where Reform UK is not expected to poll as well as it is doing in the north of England.
Comparing a party's losses or gains from one year to the next is difficult because the number of seats at stake varies widely across years, dependent upon which local authorities are voting. In May 2025, for example, only 1,641 seats were at stake; this year, there are more than 5,000.
One way of controlling for these large differences in seat numbers is to focus on the seats lost as a percentage of those being defended.
In 2025, the Conservatives were defending 996 seats and lost 675, a loss rate of 68%. At the same time, Labour was defending 287 but lost 189 - a loss rate of 66%. Historically, these were amongst the worst results ever recorded in local elections.
Where do we stand with more than 1,000 seats declared? The truth is the percentage is changing, depending on which council is announcing its results.
Labour's loss rate was running at around 70%. Projecting that loss rate forward to take account of all the seats at stake suggests that Labour are in danger of losing more than 1,500 seats, but falling below the doomsday figure of 2,000 losses.
As more results have been entered, the situation has improved with Labour on track to make around 1,300 losses.
The Conservatives, too, are taking losses, but the rate shows an improvement on their position from last year.
That would mean an eventual loss of about 500-600 seats for the final tally, but only if the party succeeds in avoiding heavy losses in the counties that declare later on Friday.
Both the Greens and Liberal Democrats are making seat gains, but nowhere near the scale of Reform.
The Green vote is up, but the increase has thus far been largely ineffective in terms of gaining seats. Again, the results from London boroughs may see that dynamic change.
In some place the Liberal Democrat vote is being squeezed by both Reform and the Greens, but in areas being targeted, such as Portsmouth and Stockport, where the party took control, and Sutton, where its slim majority has been transformed by a gain of 22 seats, the party is making steady progress.
However, it did fail to deprive Labour of control in Merton, but nevertheless managed to turn Richmond upon Thames into a one-party state.
